The CO2Now Climate Sheet

Updated September 15, 2011 Climate Sheet posts the world’s most current and important planetary data and targets – together in one place from leading global sources.  The CO2Now Climate Sheet enumerates the chain of causes that are driving humanity’s largest environmental crises – global warming, climate change and ocean acidification.  It also sets out key scientific markers for a stable climate system. 0 tonnes Global CO2 emissions for long-term stabilization of atmospheric CO2 “Stabilizing atmospheric CO2 and climate requires that net CO2 emissions approach zero”                     ~ J Hansen et al.  Source 1:  J Hansen et al via NASA |  Target Atmospheric CO2  |  2008 Source 2:  IPCC  via CO2Now  |   AR4 WG1 FAQ 10.3  | 2007 Related:  TED Talks  |  Bill Gates on Energy: Innovating to Zero  | 2010   0 w/m 2 watts per square meter Global energy balance  & the end of global warming x “Stabilizing climate requires, to first order, that we restore Earth’s energy balance. If the planet once again radiates as much energy to space as it absorbs from the sun, there no longer will be a drive causing the planet to get warmer.”  ~ Dr. James Hansen Source:  J Hansen | Conversation with Bill McKibben  | 2010  0.59 W/m2 (± 0.15) Global energy imbalance from rising atmospheric GHGs  |  2005 - 2010 Source:   Hansen et al.  |  Earth's Energy Balance and Implications   |  2011 Also:       J. Hansen  | Storms of My Grandchildren  p. 102  | 2009  Excerpt from Earth's Energy Balance and Implications:  "Improving observations of ocean temperature confirm that Earth is absorbing more energy from the sun than it is radiating to space as heat, even during the recent solar minimum. The inferred planetary energy imbalance, 0.59 ± 0.15 W/m2 during the 6-year period 2005-2010, provides fundamental verification of the dominant role of the human-made greenhouse effect in driving global climate change."  2.00 ppm per year parts per million Atmospheric CO2  |  Average Annual Rise  |  August 2002 -  August 2011 August (NOAA-ESRL) Data Only   The rate of increase for the latest decade is higher than any decade since the start of the atmospheric CO2 instrument record in March 1958.   More Info: CO2Now  |  Acceleration of Atmospheric CO2   8.07 pH Ocean Acidification:  Average pH of Surface Oceans  |  2005 Average pH of surface oceans has declined about 0.1 units since before the industrial revolution.  This is an increase of about 30% in the concentration of hydrogen ions which is a considerable acidification of the oceans.  “…world leaders should take account of the impact of CO2 on ocean chemistry, as well as on climate change…we recommend that all possible approaches be considered to prevent CO2 reaching the atmosphere.” ~ The Royal Society (2005) Source 1: The Royal Society | Ocean acidification due to atmospheric CO2  | 2005 Source 2: Wikipedia  |  Ocean Acidification  15.6 °C 100-Year Average Global Surface Temperature for August  |  1901 - 2000 Source:  NOAA-NCDC State of the Climate – Global Analysis  16.15 °C Average Global Surface Temperature*  |  August 2011 August 2011 is the 8th warmest August on record since 1880.  The warmest month of August on record was in 1998.  Preliminary data reported September 15, 2011 by NOAA-NCDC.  Annually, 2010 is the warmest year on record (and statistically tied with 2005). Source: NOAA-NCDC  |  Latest State of the Climate Report – Global Analysis More Info: CO2Now  |   Global Temperature Update * Average global surface temperature is constructed by adding the estimated average for the 20th Century and the latest anomoly from the 20th Century average.   172 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  Lowest level in 2.1 million years Source:  Science  | Atmospheric CO2 Across the Mid-Pleistocene  | 2009 More Info:  Science Daily | CO2 Higher Today Than Last 2.1 Million Years  | 2009  194 countries Signatories to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) The United Nation’s ultimate climate objective “is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that will prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system.”  (See UNFCCC Article 2 and UNFCCC media releases) More Info: 350.org  |  112 Countries for 350 ppm / 1.5 °C More Info:  AFP | Top UN Climate Scientist Supports 350 Goal Note: In the event that other countries (or the UNFCCC as a whole) adopts a quantified atmospheric stabilization target for CO2 or any other greenhouse gases, it will be posted in The CO2Now Climate Sheet.   280 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  Pre-Industrial Revolution Atmospheric CO2 was stable at about 280 ppm for almost 10,000 years until 1750.  300 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  Highest level in at least 2.1 million years (pre-industrial) Circa 1912, atmospheric CO2 levels breached the 300 ppm threshold for the first time in at least 2.1 million years.  350 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  Upper Safety Limit “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that… If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.” ~ J Hansen et al Source 1:  Open Atmospheric Science  |  Target Atmospheric CO2   |  2008 Source 2:  Nature  |  A Safe Operating Space for Humanity  |  2009 Source 3:  SRC  Ecology & Society  |  Planetary Boundaries  |  2009 More Info:  350.org | Science of 350  388.15 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  August 2010  |  Mauna Loa Observatory Data posted September 8, 2011 by NOAA-ESRL. CO2Now Links to Source Data |   Atmospheric CO2 data from NOAA & Scripps 390.02 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  August 2011  |  Mauna Loa Observatory Preliminary data posted September 8, 2011 by NOAA-ESRL. CO2Now Links to Source Data | Atmospheric CO2 data from NOAA & Scripps 835 ppm Atmospheric CO2  |  Projection for Year 2100 This projection is made in C-ROADS, a scientifically reviewed climate simulator. The analysis accounts for the voluntary emissions reductions pledges of parties to the UNFCCC.  This CO2 level represents a global temperature increase of about 4.3 °C.   Source: Climate Interactive  Analysis of September 2, 2011 Implications:  The Royal Society  |   Four Degrees and Beyond  |  2011  6,959,135,290 World Population  |  September 1, 2011 More than 6.9 billion people are living on planet Earth.  If humanity is to achieve a stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at safe levels, this is roughly the number of people who will need to be aligned with net CO2 emissions that approach zero.  (See “0 tonnes” in this Climate Sheet.) Source: International Programs Center, US Census Bureau More information about population:World Population  |  Wikipedia Bonus Media Coverage: National Geographic  |  7 Billion 30.8 billion metric tonnes Humanity's Global CO2 Emissions  |  2009 2009 global CO2 emissions were the second highest in human history.   Global fossil fuel emissions – more than 88% of all carbon emissions – are projected to increase by more than 3% in 2010.   In the past decade, 47% of CO2 emissions accumulated in the atmosphere, 27% were absorbed by land and 26% were absorbed by the ocean.  The 2009 data was published November 21, 2010.  Source:  Nature Geoscience & GCP Via  CO2Now  |  Global Carbon Emissions